Howdy. This is Bob. The Bob of Bob Blog. This blog contains about five minutes of my thoughts each day. A record. A history. And occasionally worth reading.
Sunday, October 30, 2005
Football Week 8
Pick the home team. And only bet against the home team in case of absolute certainty. Even then, you'll likely be wrong. I got 10 correct this week. Home team got 11. Basically, the home team picker has the season point title wrapped up already.
The home team will lose 4-6 games a week: 1 upset, 1 pickem, 2+ obvious games. The horrible weeks will have 2-3 upsets. So I think the trick is to figure out who is losing at home and pick them for the obvious losses. And if you can take then pick 12 games correctly -- unstoppable. Going back to the data...
GB (1-5) at CIN (5-2, 2-1 home). HOME (14-21)
ARI (2-4) at DAL (4-3, 2-1 home). HOME (13-34)
JAC (4-2) at STL (3-4, 2-1 home). Pickem (21-24)
WAS (4-2) at NYG (4-2, 3-0 home). Pickem (0-36)
MIN (2-4) at CAR (4-2, 2-1 home). HOME (13-38)
KC (4-2) at SD (3-4, 1-2 home). Pickem (20-28)
PHI (4-2) at DEN (5-2, 4-0 home). HOME (21-49)
BUF (3-4) at NE (3-3, 1-1 home). HOME (16-21)
CHI (3-3) at DET (3-3, 2-1 home). Pickem (19-13)
OAK (2-4) at TEN (2-5, 1-2 home). Pickem (34-25)
CLE (2-4) at HOU (0-6, 0-3 home). Upset (16-19)
MIA (2-4) at NO (2-5, 1-2 home). Pickem (21-6)
TB (5-1) at SF (1-5, 1-2 home). Upset (10-15)
Or in summary: I have no freaking idea. But the home team wins alot. And that's the parity in the NFL where a 9-7 season will likely get you to the playoffs and 10-6 will almost definitely. That's winning all your home games and 1 or 2 games on the road. (or 3 on the road and losing 1 at home.)
Book: Los Angeles without a Map
It has been a long time since I've stopped to read a book for fun. This excludes books on tape which make it seem like I'm reading even though I'm not. This weekend, I actually read a proper book:
"Los Angeles without a map" by Richard Rayner.
The premise is an English writer leaves his current girlfriend and job to go to Los Angeles in hopes of finding the woman he met briefly on a trip to Greece. The woman ends up not being anything like the movie Richard has created in his head about their adventures. The book is essentially a collection of partially true LA stories as Richard obsessively pursues Barbara. Nothing is too crazy in that city.
Barbara happens to already have a boyfriend and works at the Playboy Club. She's trying to become an actress. Richard gets a job cleaning pools and being a mechanical man at the Wax Museum. He never learns to drive.
A broken heart was my glum prediction. I won't tell you how it ends though.
And of course I now learn it is a movie with Johnny Depp and so I expect to watch it soon.
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
Government map resources
Ask for a TIGER map of anywhere
Geocoders - a perl script for address to Lat/Lon
Program your TiVo
Tivo HME at SourceForge
The new Tivo can be programmed. Might be interesting to see what users are doing with it. Time to upgrade?
Monday, October 24, 2005
Football Week 7
Home team proves to be the best indicator again picking 9 winners on Sunday. I only picked 7 because I used my emotions instead of "science":
1) I started to feel my officemates love for Cincinnatti and picked them.
2) I picked the Chargers to win a tough road game against the Eagles (a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown equals a loss.)
3) I picked Denver on the road against NY Giants (one point loss and a desperation touchdown to lose.)
4) And I was hoping for a Raider loss but they won big at home against Buffalo.
Saturday, October 22, 2005
Movie: Wallace and Gromit
Wallace and Gromit are back at it again. This time with cute rabbits -- not hares. The stop-animation is amazing. Time to get out our own cameras to try. We had a great time.
Sometimes an idea comes along that you wish you'd thought of first. here's one: Pocket Mod
Monday, October 17, 2005
Football Part 2
The bug is resolved. Win/loss predicted 10 games correctly.
And now for fearless predictions for the rest of the charger games:
@Phi - win
KC - win
@NYJ - win
Buf - win
@Was - win
Oak - win
Mia - win
@Ind - loss
@KC - loss
Den - win
For a final record of 11-5
Football Week 6
Last week was a horrible week (5 correct.) This week was nearly perfect with 11 correct (only two wrong pending the Monday night results.) And nothing backs up the results: home team only predicted 8, points scored = 6, ...
Doh! Another bug. Win/loss wasn't being set correctly. Let's see how that changes the season totals... But first a word from our programmer:
Things from the box score that may need to be added with the risk that this will add an hour to the time to input data.
3rd down efficiency
Yards per pass
Yards per rush
Sunday, October 16, 2005
Theater: Curse of the Starving Class
We went to see another play at Cygnet. This time it was Curse of the Starving Class That's a link to the movie preview and not the stage play and didn't load in Firefox.
This play is about a dysfunctional family that is striving to keep food on the table. A dark comedy perhaps? I was disappointed in the ending. Perhaps I wanted a sitcom solution or something other than a B-movie dissolution. Regardless, the acting was fabulous and the time well spent. The daughter Ella was particularly witty and her dreams of Mexico makes me want to escape across the border.
I hope we avoid the "curse" whatever it may be. And speaking of which, I need to go see what's in the fridge for breakfast.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
Football Week 5
An ugly week for me with only five correct picks. I wish I could blame a software bug. Unfortunately, I can't find the bug to blame.
For the season, the home team still seems to be the best predictor. Unless you are the Chargers and happen to be 1-2 at home. It seems obvious to try to add a home/away record field into the predictor. And watching the Fox/ESPN ranking fluctuate wildly, I'm considering taking a weighted average
I really don't have much to add this week because I was out and didn't pay any attention at all to football. Next week will take use beyond the 1/3rd of the season mark and perhaps some fearless predictions about who will win their divisions.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Close but not quite enough for the Padres to come back. They left the bases loaded in the ninth inning of game 1 against the Cardinals. They only need to win one on the road so it is too early to panic.
NLDS: Game 1
Padres 5 at Cardinals 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Padres 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 13 1
Cardinals 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 x 8 10 1
Monday, October 03, 2005
Football Week 4
I picked great this week with 10 correct picks. The computer didn't do so well with 9 for the home team being the closest. Both the PPP algorithm and points scored technique got 8 of 14 correct. Just using the relative win/loss or the Power Ratings only picked 6 correct winners.
Overall for the season, the home team is still the best predictor followed by the expert Power Ratings and then points scored. Using my favorite mascots is the worst possible way as expected although it is at least as good as picking randomly.
I won't have access to a computer until very late Wednesday next week. So don't expect my witty analysis until Thursday.
Sunday, October 02, 2005
This morning, Sophia and I went for a 5KM walk in Hillcrest to support people with HIV/AIDS. The San Diego AIDS Walk annually raises funds for local agencies to help provide essential prevention and care programs to thousands of men, women and children living with HIV/AIDS.
There were lots and lots of people walking. The Union-Tribune had the estimate at 12,000 people. The path started near Laurel on the West side of Balboa Park and headed up 6th to University, across to Park, south past the zoo, and across the bridge to the start. The course is basically flat. We didn't keep our time but we started near the front of the walkers and so didn't have to wait long to actually start walking which is unusual.
One of walkers from Sophia's work raised over $1500 in donations. Someone raised over $3000. We raised our $20 entry fee. Every bit counts.
I finished moving the blog from members.cox.net to http://bobblog.bobandsophia.com. Let me know if something is broken.