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    Howdy. This is Bob. The Bob of Bob Blog. This blog contains about five minutes of my thoughts each day. A record. A history. And occasionally worth reading.

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    Bob Blog
     
    Sunday, October 30, 2005  
    Football Week 8
    Pick the home team. And only bet against the home team in case of absolute certainty. Even then, you'll likely be wrong. I got 10 correct this week. Home team got 11. Basically, the home team picker has the season point title wrapped up already.

    The home team will lose 4-6 games a week: 1 upset, 1 pickem, 2+ obvious games. The horrible weeks will have 2-3 upsets. So I think the trick is to figure out who is losing at home and pick them for the obvious losses. And if you can take then pick 12 games correctly -- unstoppable. Going back to the data...


    Correct:
    GB (1-5) at CIN (5-2, 2-1 home). HOME (14-21)
    ARI (2-4) at DAL (4-3, 2-1 home). HOME (13-34)
    JAC (4-2) at STL (3-4, 2-1 home). Pickem (21-24)
    WAS (4-2) at NYG (4-2, 3-0 home). Pickem (0-36)
    MIN (2-4) at CAR (4-2, 2-1 home). HOME (13-38)
    KC (4-2) at SD (3-4, 1-2 home). Pickem (20-28)
    PHI (4-2) at DEN (5-2, 4-0 home). HOME (21-49)
    BUF (3-4) at NE (3-3, 1-1 home). HOME (16-21)

    Wrong:
    CHI (3-3) at DET (3-3, 2-1 home). Pickem (19-13)
    OAK (2-4) at TEN (2-5, 1-2 home). Pickem (34-25)
    CLE (2-4) at HOU (0-6, 0-3 home). Upset (16-19)
    MIA (2-4) at NO (2-5, 1-2 home). Pickem (21-6)
    TB (5-1) at SF (1-5, 1-2 home). Upset (10-15)


    Or in summary: I have no freaking idea. But the home team wins alot. And that's the parity in the NFL where a 9-7 season will likely get you to the playoffs and 10-6 will almost definitely. That's winning all your home games and 1 or 2 games on the road. (or 3 on the road and losing 1 at home.)

    10:30 PM  0 comments

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